Presidential Primary

On the America blog I found an article by Jon Green titled “How much does primary turnout tell us about general election turnout? Not much.” The argument Jon Green is presenting in his blog is that “Republicans want to believe that having higher turnout in primaries means that they will have higher turnout in the general election.” However Jon Green goes on to prove that is not true and he supports his argument by showing that there is very little evidence to support this conclusion. His evidence is strictly statistics from previous primaries and general elections, which show no correlation between the two. “In 2000, Republican primary turnout exceeded Democratic primary turnout for the first time ever, and yet Democrats won the popular vote.” This shows that even if one parties turnout is higher it doesn’t necessarily predict the general elections results. Jon Green also has a background in politics and comes with a B.A. in Political Science, which makes him credible. Jon Green also explains why turnout is what it is in the parties. Green claims that Hilary is portraying the same scenario that took place in 2012 with Mitt Romney. He states that Hilary just like Romney may not be the most inspiring candidate but she is the “Prohibitive favorite” for the democratic nomination. He also explains why Trump is dominating the republicans. According to Jon Green the “ Trumps dominance in the nominating contests is being under cut by the fact the Republican Party is desperately trying to deny him a majority of pledged delegates heading into the convention.” But once again these results do not predict the General Election.

            Jon Green's intended audience was not any specific party supporter but overall any voters. His purpose isn’t to bash on either or party but instead explain a misguided theory. Also, to remind all voters that primaries don’t mean much and that the general election can change everything so voter turnout should only increase. After reading this you don’t really have a choice but to agree with Jon because he supported his argument with enough evidence and logic.